Possible Cause of Seasonal Inhomogeneity in Interdecadal Changes of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

초록

An abrupt decrease in annual tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF), which is statistically significant only from October to December (OND), has been noticed over the western North Pacific Ocean. However, the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF between OND and the other seasons (from January to September) and the associated mechanisms are not clearly documented. This study examines and compares the different interdecadal changes in OND and in January-September from 1979 to 2018. According to our analysis, the TCGF decrease in OND (2.2) accounts for 79% of the total decrease (2.8) in annual 'TCGF after 1998, whereas the TCGF in January to September remains unchanged. The key differences in large-scale environment are found from the extension of equatorial easterly wind anomalies and attendant anticyclone anomalies in the subtropics. Under similar sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern in the tropical Indo-Pacific region (i.e., the La Nifia-like SST warming), tropical precipitation is significantly enhanced over the area where its seasonal peak occurs: the tropical Indian Ocean in OND and the tropical western Pacific in January-September. Thus, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies extend westward to 110 degrees E in OND and to 145 degrees E in January-September. Different extension of easterly wind anomalies results in different expansion of attendant large-scale anticyclone anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, which dominates the entire main development region in OND but not in January-September. To summarize, the different extensions of easterly wind anomalies under similar La Nina-like SST warming are responsible for the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF.

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