충청지역 극한강우지수의 시공간적 경향과 변동성 분석

초록

Extreme precipitation events have recently become a leading cause of disasters. Thus, investigating the variability and trends of extreme precipitationis crucial to mitigate the increasing impact of such events. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in annual precipitation and four extreme precipitationindices of duration (CWD), frequency (R10 mm), intensity (Rx1day), and percentile-based threshold (R95pTOT) were analyzed using the dailyprecipitation data of 10 observation stations in Chungcheong province during 1974–2020. The precipitation at all observation stations, except theBoryeong station, showed nonsignificant increasing trends at 95% confidence level (CL) and increasing magnitudes from the west to east regions. Thehigh variability in mean annual precipitation was more pronounced around the northeast and northwest regions. Similarly, there were moderate to highpatterns in extreme precipitation indices around the northeast region. However, the precipitation indices of duration and frequency consistently increasedfrom the west to east regions, while those of intensity and percentile-based threshold increased from the south to east regions. Nonsignificant increasingtrends dominated in CWD, R10 mm, and Rx1day at all stations, except for R10 mm at Boeun station and Rx1day at Cheongju and Jecheon stations,which showed a significantly increasing trend. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude shows that R10 mm increased from the west to east regions. Furthermore, variations in precipitation were very strongly correlated (99% CL) with R10 mm, Rx1day, and R95pTOT at all stations, except with wR10mm at Cheongju station, which was strongly correlated with a 95% CL.

키워드