배터리 전기차 구매에서의 시계열 모멘텀: 혁신 확산 행태에 대한 실증 분석

초록

In this paper, we propose utilizing the well-known financial measure of time series momentum (TSM) as a novel approach to understanding innovation diffusion in battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchases. Traditionally used to investigate investor behavior in financial markets, TSM can also be applied to analyze human behavior more broadly. By examining a unique dataset comprising 17,517 BEV purchase records in South Korea from January 2015 to December 2021, we shed light on peer effect in BEV purchasing. We find that past BEV purchases over a 6-month period predict future BEV purchases, indicating the existence of peer effect among innovative consumers. We further distinguish between domestic and international brand purchases, finding a clear 6-month positive TSM for domestic brands, whereas no distinct pattern emerges for imported brands. These findings suggest that while peer effect significantly impacts domestic BEV purchases, it plays a lesser role in the decision-making process for imported vehicles. Our contributions highlight the applicability of TSM beyond financial markets, offering a valuable tool for analyzing consumer behavior in the context of eco-friendly technological innovations.

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