인구구조 변화가 지역 금융시장에 미치는 영향 및 신용보증기금의 역할

초록

This study empirically analyzes the correlation between aging and the financial market using metropolitan and provincial data from 2005 to 2022, taking into account the situation in Korea, which is experiencing changes in the demographic structure due to aging and low birth rates. As a result of the analysis, we find that the aging variables have a statistically significant positive effect on the savings rate. This can be interpreted as an incentive to increase savings compared to retirement due to an increase in life expectancy, as the burden of supporting children decreases due to a decrease in the fertility rate, increasing the savings capacity of the middle-aged. It is observed that demographic change variables partially have a positive effect on stock returns, but no significant relationship on long-term bond returns. This can be interpreted as accumulating or holding assets for a considerable period of time even after the age of 65 as stock holdings are concentrated in high income, but no positive effect was found on long-term bond yields. Due to the increase in demand for financial products due to aging, it should promote housing pension products linked to life insurance products, and considering the proportion of real assets in Korea's household portfolio, a real asset securitization system should be activated to alleviate housing price fluctuations and liquidity risks. Meanwhile, due to aging and regional extinction, the new KODIT's specific role was suggested, such as strengthening new credit-based financial instruments focused on revitalizing the local economy, providing products for the inflow of funds and manpower to the region, and strengthening financial education and information provision for the elderly.

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