Granular origins of the Chinese business cycle

초록

Recent events in China, like Foxconn's factory downsizing and Evergrande's bankruptcy, have significantly impacted regional economies, highlighting how idiosyncratic shocks from large firms can generate aggregate effects. Using the 'granular hypothesis', which posits a significant impact of large firms' actions on the macroeconomy, this study investigates how idiosyncratic shocks from large Chinese firms affect regional productivity growth and markups. Our findings demonstrate that idiosyncratic shocks to the 100 largest firms per province significantly impact regional labour productivity and total factor productivity growth but not gross regional domestic product growth. Subsequently, we examine how idiosyncratic shocks impact product market distortions, revealing that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms increase markups in regional markets, suggesting amplified market power.

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