콩 생산량이 소매가격에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구

초록

This study examined how the increase in soybean production according to the goal of improving the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans affects the retail price through multivariate time series analysis and scenario analysis. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the Granger causality confirmed that soybean production has a statistically significant with retail prices. Second, it was found that the retail price of soybeans is more affected by the production volume in the long term. Third, the results of the scenario analysis according to the achievement of the soybean self-sufficiency rate goal estimated that the retail price of soybeans would fall to 7,808 won/kg in 2027. Therefore, the supply and demand sides to prepare for the worsening of farm management are as follows. First, efforts are needed to reduce production costs through scale-up and mechanization rate improvement based on continuous improvement of the soybean production base. Second, developing and distributing various soybean varieties, such as high-quality and high-yield, are needed. Third, developing and promoting various foods is necessary to expand the demand for domestic soybeans. Fourth, it is necessary to maintain the domestic soybean price by expanding the export of domestic soybeans using the Korean Wave, etc.

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