Improved time-varying reproduction numbers using the generation interval for COVID-19

초록

Estimating key epidemiological parameters, such as incubation period, serial interval (SI), generation interval (GI) and latent period, is essential to quantify the transmissibility and effects of various interventions of COVID-19. These key parameters play a critical role in quantifying the basic reproduction number. With the hard work of epidemiological investigators in South Korea, estimating these key parameters has become possible based on infector-infectee surveillance data of COVID-19 between February 2020 and April 2021. Herein, the mean incubation period was estimated to be 4.9 days (95% CI: 4.2, 5.7) and the mean generation interval was estimated to be 4.3 days (95% CI: 4.2, 4.4). The mean serial interval was estimated to be 4.3, with a standard deviation of 4.2. It is also revealed that the proportion of presymptomatic transmission was similar to 57%, which indicates the potential risk of transmission before the disease onset. We compared the time-varying reproduction number based on GI and SI and found that the time-varying reproduction number based on GI may result in a larger estimation of R-t, which refers to the COVID-19 transmission potential around the rapid increase of cases. This highlights the importance of considering presymptomatic transmission and generation intervals when estimating the time-varying reproduction number.

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