가정용 도시가스 가격 연동제 유보의 정책 효과 분석: 이중차분모형을 이용한 한일 비교

초록

Natural gas prices surged in the second half of 2021 due to a decline in wind power generation in Northern Europe and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. While most countries, including Japan, continued the policy of indexing energy prices to the international market price of natural gas, South Korea stabilized its energy prices through government-owned companies: KEPCO and KOGAS. This paper examines the impact of the Korean government's decision to halt the cost pass-through system on natural gas demand. During the natural gas supply crisis in 2022, Korea suspended the pass-through system, while Japan continued to link international prices to domestic market prices. In this context, the two countries were analyzed using the difference-in-differences method. This study found that the average treatment effect on the treated group, which refers to the impact of stopping the pass-through system, was 2.76%. This indicates that halting the pass-through system significantly increased the demand for domestic city gas among households. The government's decision achieved the policy goal of improving energy accessibility for consumers and preventing a sharp decline in natural gas consumption. However, this policy extended beyond crisis response and resulted in increased energy consumption even during the crisis. Energy pricing policies are crucial not only for stabilizing people's livelihoods but also for promoting responsible usage to mitigate global warming. The conclusion of this study emphasizes that the Korean government needs to utilize market mechanisms and focus on those with limited access to energy.

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