Unraveling the Impact of Russian Sanctions and Oil Prices on Exchange Rate: A Comparative Approach

초록

This paper investigates the impacts of sanctions and oil prices on the Russian ruble's exchange rate dynamics during two critical sanction periods: 2014-2015 and 2021-2022. We examine why the ruble depreciated significantly in 2014 while appreciated in 2022 despite similar sanction regimes. We posit that elevated oil prices in 2022, in contrast to the decline observed in 2014, mitigate the adverse effects of the sanctions. Employing a vector error correction model, we analyze the impact of sanctions and oil prices on the ruble's exchange rate. Our empirical findings indicate that the impact of sanctions is significant only in 2022 subsample, whereas oil prices exert a consistently positive influence on the ruble, accounting for a substantial portion of its fluctuations across both the 2014 and 2022 periods. Furthermore, counterfactual simulations suggest that the ruble's unexpected appreciation is primarily attributable to the subdued effects of 2022 sanctions, the long-run effect of elevated oil prices and the response of monetary policy.

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