Criteria for Determining the Transfer of Construction Risk Based on Risk Occurrence Probability

초록

This study explores risk transfer strategies in construction project management, aiming to establish evaluation criteria for effectively transferring known and unknown risks to third parties such as insurance companies or contractors. By cost-benefit analysis of historical insurance claims data and integrating the PERT network method, the study determines when risk transfer is economically beneficial, especially in large infrastructure projects facing natural disasters. The results show that risk transfer is optimal when the insurance compensation to risk probability ratio is less than the insurance premium or the probability of risk occurrence is within the calculated threshold. This study provides a judgment benchmark for risk transfer in the risk response program of construction management, which greatly helps project managers and project planners improve the efficiency of risk response. © 2025 Seventh Sense Research Group®.

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