Application of Machine Learning Models in the Estimation of Quercus mongolica Stem Profiles

초록

Accurate estimation of stem profiles is critical for forest management, timber yield prediction, and ecological modeling. However, traditional taper equations often fail to capture species-specific growth variability and exhibit significant biases, particularly in the upper stem regions. Machine learning regression models were applied to estimate Quercus mongolica stem profiles across South Korea, and performance was compared with that of a traditional taper equation. A total of 2503 sample trees were used to train and validate Random Forest (RF), XGBoost (XGB), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. Predictive performance was evaluated using root mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination metrics, and performance differences were validated statistically. The ANN model exhibited the highest predictive accuracy and stability across all diameter classes, maintaining smooth and consistent stem profiles even in the upper stem regions where the traditional taper model exhibited significant errors. RF and XGB models had moderate performance but exhibited localized fluctuations, whereas the Kozak taper equation tended to overestimate basal diameters and underestimate crown-top diameters. Machine learning models, particularly ANN, offer a robust alternative to fixed-form taper equations, contributing substantially to forest resource inventory, carbon stock assessment, and climate-adaptive forest management planning.

키워드