Analyzing Factors and Developing Strategies for Rice Price Stabilization Policy in Indonesia

초록

Ensuring the stability of rice prices is crucial for promoting sustainable agricultural development. In Indonesia, BULOG, the state-owned enterprise tasked with managing food supplies, is responsible for maintaining this stability. This research explores the factors and strategies that influence rice prices for consumers and forecast their movement in future. The study analyzes a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 2018 to December 2022 and employs double logarithmic regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) techniques, yielding intriguing insights. The findings highlight that the government purchase price, central government rice reserve, and rice imports play pivotal roles in stabilizing rice prices, while the variable of market operations, although influencing rice price fluctuations, is less effective in achieving the desired price stability. The short-term consumer rice price fore- casts are expected to significantly contribute to various government strategies for price stabilization. The best-performing ARIMA (1,0,2) forecasting model with an impressively low 0.41 percent MAPE value closely matches actual data, meeting the criteria for highly accurate forecasting. By unraveling the nuances of these factors, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, enabling them to devise more robust strategies to ensure a stable rice market in Indonesia.

키워드