포스트 케인지언 가동률 논쟁과 한국의 가동률

초록

This study examines the empirical validity of the neo-Kaleckian wage-led growth model in the context of the South Korean economy, focusing on the debate over post-Keynesian capacity utilization rate. Using monthly data on the average manufacturing capacity utilization rate and the Index of All Industry Production, we conduct unit root tests and estimate a Structural Vector Autoregression model. The analysis shows that capacity utilization was stable over the full sample period, but since 2010 it exhibits a downward trend and evidence of a unit root. Moreover, the effect of shocks to industrial production on capacity utilization rate is short-lived and dissipates within approximately two years. This suggests that capacity utilization rate quickly converges to normal utilization rate, contradicting the neo-Kaleckian prediction that permanent demand shocks should result in lasting changes in the normal rate of capacity utilization. These findings call for a more rigorous empirical assessment of the neo-Kaleckian framework, particularly in guiding future distribution-oriented policy design.

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