지진에 의한 부산 송전망의 확률론적 안전성 평가

초록

Earthquakes can damage transmission system components, leading to extensive blackouts and disrupting essential societal functions. In urban areas, interruptions in power supply critically impact sectors such as industry, healthcare, and telecommunications, highlighting the need for quantitative and systematic analysis. Most existing research has focused on assessing seismic fragility at the individual facility level, with insufficient probabilistic safety evaluations that consider the connectivity of entire transmission systems. This study aims to quantify the connectivity-based seismic fragility and risk associated with transmission systems in Busan and its neighboring regions, Ulsan and Gyeongnam. To achieve this, a network model of Busan’s transmission system was developed using OpenStreetMap data. Damage probabilities were calculated using seismic fragility curves from HAZUS and reports from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Damage state-specific risks were then quantitatively assessed by combining these fragility values with Busan’s seismic hazard curves. The results showed High Confidence and Low Probability of Failure values ranging from 0.049 g (Slight) to 0.273 g (Complete), with median fragility values ranging from 0.143 g (Slight) to 0.605 g (Complete). The annual risk for each damage state was determined to be 4.151×10-4/yr, 1.177×10-4/yr, 3.667×10-5/yr, and 9.391×10-6/yr. This research quantitatively assesses the seismic fragility of Busan’s transmission system, providing a practical basis for disaster response strategies and risk-informed decision-making related to regional electric power infrastructure.

키워드