대설 피해에 대응한 온실 구조 설계를 위한 목표 신뢰성 지수 제안

초록

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy-snow events, causing substantial damage to plastic greenhouses; however, the current blueprints of greenhouse structures based on allowable stress design have limitations in ensuring a consistent safety level and in supporting claim determinations of storm‑and‑flood insurance. To enable the adoption of LSD (Limit State Design) for greenhouse structures, this study aimed to derive the key metric—the target reliability index. We compiled a database of 43 disaster‑resilient blueprints in Korea and applied a greenhouse‑specific, active-learning-based structural reliability analysis to compute the reliability index for snow loads. The analysis shows that the group of designs, prepared after the announcement of ｢Guideline for Greenhouse Structural Design (Draft)｣ in 2017, exhibits a failure probability approximately 92.5 times lower than the group prepared beforehand. Also, the lower bounds of the reliability index are 3.29 and 1.95, respectively. Considering these reliability levels together with international design standard, we propose target reliability indices of 3.30 for the ultimate limit state and 2.00 for the serviceability limit state. The proposed indices are expected to serve as key foundational data for advancing LSD‑based greenhouse structural design standard and for establishing criteria for storm‑and‑flood insurance.

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