크리스탈 사이클과 수요, 기술의 공진화: TFT-LCD 산업의 역사 친화적 모형

초록

This paper aims at building a history-friendly model which replicates the history of the Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) industry focusing on the industrial business cycle(crystal cycle) and co-evolution of demand and technology. The model is distinctive compared to existing models addressing industrial business cycles in two points: 1) endogenous demand and technological change are incorporated 2) industrial cycle affects evolution of demand and technology as well as are caused by the change of demand and technology, that is, we consider industrial business cycle as a medium of co-evolution of demand and technology. The simulation results show that it can successfully replicate the crystal cycle, and investment-production delay, price delay and endogenous change of demand are factors of the crystal cycle. Moreover, we can see positive feedback between demand expansion and technological advance through medium of the cycle.

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