가축분뇨 자원화 시설의 투자 경제성 분석

초록

While the amount of livestock manure generated in Korea increases every year, the cultivated area to accommodate fertilizer resources continues to decrease. So new treatment methods of livestock manure are required. This paper derives the optimal investment point threshold of livestock manure biomass using real options. By constructing a scenario that combines investment sensitivity analysis and policy support for each policy variable (initial investment costs, interest rate, REC weight), This paper analyzed the economic feasibility. As a result of the analysis, the threshold for investment in livestock manure biomass obtained as a real option was KRW 490,959/kw. As a result of the economic analysis by scenario, there was economic feasibility if the initial installation cost subsidy rate was raised to 90%, the discount rate was lowered to 0.03, and the REC weight was raised to 2. (The investment threshold is KRW 42,509/kw, which is economical because it is lower than the average contract price for livestock manure biomass (115,145/kw)). In order to revitalize livestock manure biomass investment in the future, policy support for initial investment costs, discount of interest rates, and raise of REC weights should be done in combination. In particular, the initial investment cost, which has the greatest investment sensitivity, should be supported by the largest margin. This paper acknowledged that domestic livestock manure biomass should be treated as a public good character, and suggested the importance of active policy support through government intervention.

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