Bayesian modeling of Atlantic tropical storms

초록

Recent research suggests a potential link between warmer climate conditions and an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. This includes a rise in both the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, as well as their intensity, measured by the total power they dissipate. To assess their relationship, statistical models using climate data are essential for understanding tropical storm formation. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework for predicting Atlantic tropical storm occurrences, with a specific focus on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Utilizing climate data from 1900 to 2002, we employ hierarchical Bayesian modeling to find the relationships between hurricane occurrences and various climatic factors, including surface temperatures in both the northern Atlantic Sea and global, along with different Atlantic oscillations. Additionally, other relevant issues are also addressed.

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