대구광역시 근접 열대저기압의 영향 유형별 기후적 특성 분석 및 영향 유형 예측 모형 개발

초록

This study classified tropical cyclones (TCs) passing near Daegu as compound, raindominant, wind-dominant, or weak based on observed daily precipitation and maximum wind speed at the Daegu Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). TCs of the compound type had the closest tracks to the Daegu ASOS and exhibited the highest maximum sustained wind speed (MSWS). These TCs maintained their intensity due to weak vertical wind shear and strong vertical velocity (VV) around the Korean Peninsula during their influence period. Raindominant TCs exhibited greater intensity in terms of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) while passing east of the Daegu ASOS. During the period influenced by rain-dominant TCs, high VV was observed because the Korean Peninsula was located south of the jet stream entrance. Winddominant TCs exhibited higher MSWS intensity while passing west of the Daegu ASOS, placing Daegu within the dangerous semicircle of TCs. Weak TCs had the farthest tracks from the Daegu ASOS and exhibited the lowest intensity in terms of MSWS and MSLP. The multiple linear regression model developed in this study performed poorly in predicting rainfall and maximum wind speed at Daegu, as well as determining the type of influence although it performed moderately well in predicting whether Daegu is influenced by a TC. This is because simple linear regression cannot capture nonlinear relationships, and the meteorological variables are at a synoptic scale much larger than that of Daegu. Addressing these limitations in future work could improve TC impact warnings for Daegu.

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