행정동 내 범죄위험 분포 유형화와 분포 유형별 영향요인 분석: 서울시를 중심으로

초록

This study categorizes the spatial distribution patterns of crime risk within administrative districts and analyzes factors that create crime opportunities by each type. Utilizing the average, standard deviation, and Gini coefficient of crime risk ratings within administrative districts, the study established classification criteria and identified eight distinct types of crime risk distribution. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors that determine the types of crime risk distribution within administrative districts. Additionally, spatial regression analysis was conducted specifically for representative types such as ‘uniform low-risk (LLL)’ and ‘unequal high-risk (HHH)’ to compare the factors influencing their respective average crime risks. The results indicated that facilitating factors (e.g., entertainment facilities and residential buildings) and inhibiting factors (e.g., police stations and emergency bells) exhibited different effects depending on the type. Furthermore, even identical factors varied in the direction and intensity of their effects across different distribution types. The findings suggest that differential interpretation of influencing factors is required according to the type of crime risk distribution, highlighting the necessity of appropriately defining the analytical scope and targets depending on research objectives. Thus, this study can serve as a foundational resource for developing region-specific policies aimed at suppressing crime opportunities.

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