방위산업에서 해외 원자재 조달 리스크의 다차원적 평가

초록

This study proposes a refined model to assess the risks associated with sourcing raw materials from overseas for the defense industry. The model incorporates market concentration, Country Risk(CR), Political Distance(PD), Transportation Risk(TR), and raw material Price Volatility(PV). Using data from the past ten years (2014–2023), this study identifies high-risk supplier countries and critical import items. The findings revealed a significant concentration of procurement from specific countries such as the United States and Germany, with Egypt emerging as the highest-risk supplier. Additionally, cotton linters pulp (HS 470610) was identified as the highest-risk item because of its heavy dependence on China, coupled with the high country risk, transportation risk, and political uncertainty between South Korea and China. This study provides a strategic foundation for reducing reliance on specific suppliers and diversifying supply chains to enhance stability. These findings offer practical insights for policymakers and industry leaders in managing supply chain risks, ultimately contributing to the sustainability and security of the defense industry.

키워드