Prognostic nutritional index as an early predictor of mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: multicenter retrospective study in South Korea

초록

Background and aim Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a fatal tick-borne infectious disease lacking effective treatments or vaccines. Early identification of prognostic factors is essential for optimizing clinical management. This study investigated the predictors for mortality in SFTS patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 413 SFTS patients hospitalized in South Korea from 2013 to 2024. Clinical and laboratory data were comprehensively analyzed to evaluate associations between in-hospital mortality and various inflammatory, immune, and nutritional biomarkers. Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to identify risk factors. Results 413 patients diagnosed with SFTS were included and In-hospital mortality was 17% (70/413). Multivariate Cox regression identified older age (HR: 1.042; 95% CI: 1.014-1.071), elevated PT(INR) (HR: 109.57; 95% CI: 19.79-606.57), and lower prognostic nutritional index (PNI) (HR: 0.937; 95% CI: 0.886-0.990) as early predictors of mortality. Time-dependent ROC analysis demonstrated predictive accuracy, with AUCs of 0.512 for age, 0.857 for PT(INR), and 0.694 for PNI at 30 days. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significant survival differences for patients stratified by PNI (< 40.75), PT(INR) (>= 0.97), and age (>= 59 years). Conclusions PNI, PT(INR), and age were identified as key early predictors of mortality in SFTS. PNI, as a novel biomarker, was found to be a useful index for risk level and treatment strategies in SFTS patients. Clinical trial number Not applicable.

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