Identifying and Prioritizing Climate-Related Natural Hazards for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea Using Delphi

초록

Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of natural hazards such as heat waves, extreme rainfall, heavy snowfall, typhoons, droughts, floods, and cold waves, potentially impacting the operational safety of critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants (NPPs). Although quantitative indicators exist to screen-out natural hazards at NPPs, comprehensive methodologies for assessing climate-related hazards remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, given the variability and uncertainty of climate change, it is realistically and resource-wise difficult to evaluate all potential risks quantitatively. Using a structured expert elicitation approach, this study systematically identifies and prioritizes climate-related natural hazards for Korean NPPs. An iterative Delphi survey involving 42 experts with extensive experience in nuclear safety and systems was conducted and also evaluated using the best-worst scaling (BWS) method for cross-validation to enhance the robustness of the Delphi priorities. Both methodologies identified extreme rainfall, typhoons, marine organisms, forest fires, and lightning as the top five hazards. The findings provide critical insights for climate resilience planning, inform vulnerability assessments, and support regulatory policy development to mitigate climate-induced risks to Korean nuclear power plants.

키워드