장기파동이론을 적용한 대구광역시 중구의 도시 쇠퇴와 발전 양상 분석 및 도시재생 전략 제안

초록

This study examines urban decline and growth in Daegu Jung-gu through net and daytime population density, applying Brian Berry's Long-Wave Theory. It evaluates the effectiveness of ongoing urban regeneration projects to assess their potential as drivers of urban growth. The findings indicate three key outcomes. First, Jung-gu aligns with Kuznets wave cycles (20–25 years), suggesting it may be nearing a growth peak. Regeneration projects were identified as crucial for sustaining urban development. Second, 11 of 12 administrative districts in Jung-gu exhibit urban decline, with significant deterioration in at least two indicators. However, regeneration efforts are concentrated in only three districts, such as Seongnae 2-dong, underscoring the need for broader project coverage. Third, Wilcoxon signed-rank tests show positive impacts, including reduced housing obsolescence, increased businesses, and population growth. Persistent high commercial vacancy rates, however, require tailored regeneration strategies to address this issue. The study emphasizes the need for continuous updates and precise statistical data to evaluate regeneration outcomes effectively. Future research should integrate diverse economic and real estate indicators to enhance the application of Long-Wave Theory. These findings contribute to understanding urban decline, growth cycles, and effective regeneration strategies for regional cities.

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