정책 불확실성이 우리나라 무역에 미치는 영향

초록

This study analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korean exports, specifically identifying effects across different policy domains by utilizing policy uncertainty indices by type. Based on monthly data from January 2000 to November 2023 and using a gravity model, an empirical analysis was conducted on Korea's 24 major trading partners. Results show that when using the aggregate EPU index, only the uncertainty of trading partners significantly reduces Korean exports. However, analysis using category-specific EPU indices revealed that both trading partners' uncertainty and Korea's trade policy uncertainty have significant negative effects on exports. In particular, the effect of trade policy uncertainty exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern, gradually expanding immediately after its occurrence, reaching maximum impact after approximately a two-month lag, and then gradually diminishing.

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