반복매매모형에 의한 농지실거래가격지수 개발

초록

This research endeavors to develop a quarterly transaction-based index for farmland prices. To accomplish this objective, we utilize the repeat-sale price model, analyzing transaction data from January 2010 to December 2023. Given the limited availability of farmland parcels with repeated transactions, we create repeat transaction pairs based on the premise of ‘same farmland.’ The model is estimated through weighted least squares, with weights assigned in proportion to the frequency of transactions for ‘same farmland’ and inversely related to the duration of the transaction period. Our findings reveal several characteristics of the constructed transaction-based farmland price index. Firstly, the growth rate of this index is approximately two to three times greater than that of the survey-based farmland price index published by the Korea Real Estate Board. Secondly, the transaction-based farmland price index exhibits notable seasonal fluctuations. Thirdly, the survey-based farmland price index appears to be more stable in comparison to the transaction- based index, exhibiting significantly lower volatility and a time lag of approximately three quarters. Given that price movements of transacted farmland can affect the valuation of adjacent non-transacted farmland, this study posits that the dynamics of the transaction-based farmland price index should be taken into account when formulating or assessing farmland policies.

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