Statistical prediction of heat wave based on weather ensembles

초록

A heat wave is often referred to as a lethal phenomenon and a catastrophic event due to its detrimental impacts. It significantly influences various aspects of human life. Consequently, numerous countries endeavor to forecast heat waves annually, and recent advancements in technical research have focused on utilizing artificial intelligence for this purpose. However, predicting heat waves remains challenging due to the absence of a clearly defined scientific mechanism and a standardized definition of what constitutes a heat wave. This study seeks to develop an integrated distribution model to assess temperature distributions and predict the likelihood of heat wave warnings in the cities of Daegu, Busan, and Seoul, employing a Bayesian analytical approach. Additionally, the accuracy of these predictions will be evaluated by comparing them with actual observational data.

키워드